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Table 2 Hazard ratios and the incremental predictive value of socio-demographic, criminal history, and psychiatric risk factors for violent re-offending.

From: The association between psychiatric diagnosis and violent re-offending in adult offenders in the community

Risk factors with hazard ratios (95% CI)

C-index scores

AUC (95% CI)

Socio-demographic factors:

  

Age, 1.08 (1.05 – 1.10) per 5 year decrease

  

Male sex, 2.02 (1.59 – 2.56)

0.60

0.57 (0.55–0.59)

Criminal history variables*:

  

Any previous violent conviction, 2.94 (2.37 – 3.65)

 

0.62 (0.61–0.64)+

Index violent offence, 1.25 (1.13 – 1.39)

0.62+

 

Psychiatric variables*:

  

Any substance use disorder, 1.94 (1.38 – 2.72)

  

Any personality disorder, 1.89 (1.34 – 2.65)

0.63++

0.65 (0.63–0.67)

  1. * adjusted for age and sex
  2. + Predictive validity of socio-demographic and criminal history variables
  3. ++ Predictive validity of socio-demographic, criminal history and psychiatric variables
  4. Note: Left panel are hazard ratios for violent re-offending derived from Cox regression.
  5. Middle panel are C-index scores of the additive predictive value of each factor derived from regression coefficients from Cox regression models, and right-hand panel are the corresponding AUC values included for comparison.
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BMC Psychiatry

ISSN: 1471-244X

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