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Table 5 Area under the curve (AUC) for repeat self-harm by subgroups, with 95% confidence intervals, N = 4000, m = 1–5

From: Accuracy of risk scales for predicting repeat self-harm and suicide: a multicentre, population-level cohort study using routine clinical data

 

MSHR

ReACT

SPS

MSPS

Overall AUC (95% CI)

0.71 (0.69, 0.73)

0.71 (0.70, 0.73)

0.51 (0.48, 0.54)

0.49 (0.47, 0.51)

Male (n = 1589)

0.69 (0.67, 0.72)

0.69 (0.66, 0.72)

0.54 (0.51, 0.57)

0.52 (0.49, 0.55)

Female (n = 2411)

0.72 (0.70, 0.74)

0.73 (0.70, 0.75)

0.51 (0.49, 0.54)

0.49 (0.46, 0.52)

Aged < 19 (n = 552)

0.73 (0.68, 0.78)

0.73 (0.68, 0.78)

0.47 (0.42, 0.52)

0.48 (0.42, 0.53)

Aged = > 19 to 44 (n = 2556)

0.71 (0.69, 0.73)

0.71 (0.69, 0.73)

0.51 (0.49, 0.54)

0.48 (0.46, 0.50)

Aged 45+ (n = 892)

0.71 (0.67, 0.74)

0.71 (0.68, 0.75)

0.54 (0.49, 0.58)

0.51 (0.47, 0.56)

Main method of harm

 Self-poison (n = 3241)

0.71 (0.69, 0.73)

0.72 (0.70, 0.74)

0.53 (0.51, 0.55)

0.50 (0.48, 0.52)

 Self-injury (n = 759)

0.70 (0.67, 0.74)

0.67 (0.64, 0.71)

0.47 (0.43, 0.51)

0.47 (0.42, 0.51)

Assessed by:

 Psychiatrist (n = 638)

0.67 (0.63, 0.71)

0.64 (0.60, 0.69)

0.61 (0.56, 0.66)

0.57 (0.52, 0.62)

 Mental health nurse (n = 1273)

0.69 (0.66, 0.72)

0.72 (0.69, 0.75)

0.51 (0.47, 0.54)

0.47 (0.44, 0.51)

 Other (n = 295)

0.67 (0.61, 0.74)

0.71 (0.64, 0.77)

0.50 (0.42, 0.57)

0.44 (0.37, 0.51)

History of self-harm (n = 2759)

0.63 (0.61, 0.66)

0.67 (0.65, 0.69)

0.45 (0.42, 0.48)

0.44 (0.41, 0.46)

No history of self-harm (n = 1241)

0.64 (0.59, 0.69)

0.60 (0.53, 0.67)

0.49 (0.42, 0.55)

0.46 (0.40, 0.52)

  1. Bold text denotes statistically significant (p < 0.05) difference between groups