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Table 5 Item to outcome measures for HCR-20

From: Prospective study of factors influencing conditional discharge from a forensic hospital: the DUNDRUM-3 programme completion and DUNDRUM-4 recovery structured professional judgement instruments and risk

 

AUC

95% confidence interval

p

Odds ratio (OR)

95% confidence interval for OR

p

 

AUC

Lower

Upper

Lower

Upper

HCR-20 Historical items

        

H1 (Previous violence)

0.500

0.314

0.686

1.000

0.261

-

-

0.001

H2 (Young age at first violent incident)

0.553

0.361

0.746

0.575

0.684

0.227

2.062

0.500

H3 (Relationship instability)

0.749

0.612

0.886

0.009

0.337

0.137

0.831

0.018

H4 (Employment problems)

0.745

0.598

0.892

0.010

0.294

0.115

0.747

0.010

H5 (Substance use)

0.555

0.372

0.739

0.561

0.794

0.386

1.652

0.544

H6 (Major mental illness)

0.500

0.314

0.686

1.000

0.261

  

0.001

H7 (Psychopathy)

-

-

-

-

    

H8 (Early maladjustment)

0.634

0.453

0.815

0.160

0.531

0.233

1.211

0.132

H9 (Personality disorder)

0.549

0.368

0.731

0.603

0.622

0.146

2.651

0.521

H10 (Prior supervision failure)

0.667

0.470

0.863

0.080

0.403

0.170

0.957

0.039

HCR-20 Clinical items

        

C1 (Lack of insight)

0.779

0.625

0.934

0.003

0.147

0.042

0.513

0.003

C2 (Negative attitudes)

0.645

0.488

0.802

0.127

0.193

0.027

1.398

0.104

C3 (Active symptoms of major mental illness)

0.722

0.585

0.858

0.019

0.236

0.066

0.837

0.025

C4 (Impulsivity)

0.576

0.405

0.746

0.424

0.341

0.053

2.189

0.257

C5 (Unresponsiveness to treatment)

0.760

0.600

0.921

0.006

0.195

0.058

0.653

0.008

HCR-20 Risk items

        

R1 (Plans lack feasibility)

0.719

0.580

0.857

0.021

0.139

0.020

0.940

0.043

R2 (Exposure to destabilisers)

0.548

0.373

0.723

0.611

0.602

0.186

1.942

0.395

R3 (Lack of personal support)

0.628

0.463

0.793

0.178

0.368

0.103

1.317

0.124

R4 (Non-compliance with remediation attempts).

0.485

0.303

0.666

0.873

0.920

0.316

2.683

0.879

R5 (Stress).

0.571

0.387

0.755

0.454

0.644

0.229

1.813

0.405

  1. Note that lower scores are calculated as positive predictors of discharge yielding higher AUCs. AUC area under the curve (receiver operating characteristic). ‘p’ = Asymptotic probability for null hypothesis that AUC = 0.5. Note that H7 ‘psychopathy’ was omitted. Unadjusted odds ratios (OR) with 95% confidence intervals and Wald p values. Note that OR confidence intervals could not be calculated for HCR-H1 or HCR-H6.