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Table 11 Variables in order of magnitude of area under the curve for prediction of discharge

From: Prospective study of factors influencing conditional discharge from a forensic hospital: the DUNDRUM-3 programme completion and DUNDRUM-4 recovery structured professional judgement instruments and risk

Variable

AUC

GAF

0.930

D3 PC5 Self care and activities of daily living

0.881

START-strength S17 9(s) Insight

0.873

D4 R2 Insight

0.868

D3 PC4 Problem behaviours

0.865

D3 PC1 Physical health

0.856

D3 PC2 Mental health

0.855

D4 R1 Stability

0.851

D3 PC6 Education, occupation and creativity

0.850

D1 TS5 Specialist forensic need

0.845

START S17 (v) Insight

0.835

START S19 (s) Coping

0.830

START S6 (s) Mental state

0.828

START S2 (s) Relationships

0.818

D4 R5 Dynamic risk items

0.805

START ST18 (v). Plans

0.795

START S19 (v) Coping

0.788

SAPROF S11 Life goals

0.786

HCR-20 C1 Lack of insight

0.779

START ST18 Plans (s)

0.773

START ST20 Treatability (v)

0.763

SAPROF SO13. Social Network

0.761

HCR-20 C5 Unresponsiveness to treatment

0.760

HCR-20 H3 Relationship instability

0.749

D4 R6 Victim sensitivity

0.748

HCR-20 H4 Employment problems

0.745

D3 PC3 Drugs and alcohol

0.742

START ST6 (v) Mental state

0.739

START ST2 (v) Relationships

0.736

PANSS N1 Blunted affect

0.735

SRAMM F4 future response to psychological intervention

0.729

PANSS N5 Difficulty in abstract thinking

0.729

START ST11 (v) Social support

0.727

START ST3 (v) Occupational

0.727

D1 TS7 Preventing access

0.726

PANSS N4 Passive/apathetic/social withdrawal

0.725

START ST1 (v) Social skills

0.723

HCR-20 C3 Active symptoms of major mental illness

0.722

SAPROF SO4 Coping

0.721

PANSS P6 Suspiciousness/ persecution

0.721

D4 R3 Therapeutic rapport

0.720

HCR-20 R1 Plans lack feasibility

0.719

START ST10 (s) External triggers

0.714

D4 R4 Leave

0.711

SRAMM SC7 Psychosocial stress

0.709

SAPROF SO8 Financial management

0.705

D3 PC7 Family and social networks

0.697

START ST3 (s) Occupational

0.696

PANSS P1 Delusions

0.690

SAPROF SO5 Self control

0.686

SRAMM SC4 Treatment adherence

0.686

SRAMM F2 Future service contact

0.686

SRAMM F3 Future response to drug treatment

0.686

PANSS G9 Unusual thought content

0.683

SRAMM SC8 Problem solving deficits

0.682

PANSS N6 Lack of spontaneity and flow of conversation

0.680

SAPROF SO6 Work

0.678

START ST1 (s) Social skills

0.678

START ST7 (s) Emotional state

0.678

PANSS N2 Emotional withdrawal

0.675

START ST7 (v) Emotional state

0.675

  1. GAF global assessment of functioning, D3 DUNDRUM-3 programme completion, D4 DUNDRUM-4 recovery.