Figure 11

Contour plot depicting model fit at various combinations of the false negative rate and r parameter. The vertical axis is the sum of squared difference between observed age-specific LTP and simulated age-specific LTP. Lower elevation on the contour plot indicates a better concordance between observed and simulated age-specific LTP. The blue region at the lowest contour tracks diagonally across the plane at the base, indicating that higher r values provide a better fit when the false negative rate is low whereas lower r values provide a better fit when the false negative rate is higher.